2024/04/11
After the announcement of the ECB's decision, traders' expectations for the extent of the ECB's interest rate cuts remained stable, with interest rates expected to be cut by 19 basis points by June and 73 basis points by the end of the year.
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On the evening of April 11, the growth of U.S. PPI in March was lower than expected year-on-month, and the growth in service prices slowed down. The three major indexes collectively opened higher, but all turned down in early trading.
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Lagarde pointed out that the United States and the euro area are not mirror images of each other. The nature of inflation in the euro area is different from that in the United States. We do not rely on the Federal Reserve and must make decisions based on euro area data.
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The U.S. core CPI is once again higher than expected, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has dropped from 58% to less than 50%. The swap contract shows that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2024.
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The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1%. All Seven Sisters fell. Tesla and Microsoft fell by more than 1%. Zhonggai bucked the trend and rose, and Alibaba rose by nearly 3%.
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OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap said, "We will start to see AI be able to perform more complex tasks in more complex ways."
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose 100 points early in the session, fell nearly 300 points in early trading. The chip stock index rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session before turning lower in early trading. Tesla rose nearly 2% in early trading. In early trading, the concept stock index rose by more than 1%, NIO rose by nearly 10%, and Xpeng Motors rose by more than 9%.
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UBS believes that the current sources of gold buying are relatively scattered, including hedge funds and central banks of various countries. The motivations for buying gold include: 1. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and inflation risks; 2. The geopolitical situation; 3. Concerns about the fiscal situation of the United States. In the long term, the correlation between gold, real interest rates, and the U.S. dollar still holds.
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Media reports said that Berkshire plans to issue the first yen bonds since the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. Buffett's move triggered market speculation that he may be considering continuing to increase investment in Japan.
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A survey of consumer expectations from the New York Fed showed that the one-year inflation expectation in the United States remained stable at 3% in March; the three-year inflation expectation rose to 2.9%, from 2.7% in February; and the five-year inflation expectation fell to 2.6%. %, compared with 2.9% in February.
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Banking ETFs, regional bank ETFs, consumer discretionary ETFs and global aviation ETFs rose nearly 1%, Tesla rose more than 2%, and TSMC rose 2.2%.
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Analysis points out that when the 10-year yield approaches 4.80%, the situation in the U.S. stock market will become tricky.
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The S&P Nasdaq closed up more than 1%, the largest gain in more than three weeks, but still fell for the whole week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2% for the week. Among the "seven sisters" of technology, only Tesla fell, once falling more than 6%, while Nvidia closed up. Over 2%, Meta rose over 3% to hit a record high, rising nearly 9% in a week; AMD rose nearly 3%, while Intel fell over 2%. China Concept Stock Index fell for three consecutive times but still rose for the whole week, and NIO fell more than 2%. Pan-European stock indexes fell back to more than two-week lows, falling more than 1% for the week, their biggest drop in more than two months. After the employment report, the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield quickly returned to 4.40%, close to a four-month high; the U.S. dollar index hit a daily high, off a two-week low; the offshore RMB, which pushed up to 7.24 and hit a new high in more than a week, once fell back more than 100 points. ; Gold turned lower in the short term, and later rose by nearly 2%, hitting intraday record highs for six consecutive days; Bitcoin hit a new daily low of $66,000, down nearly $3,000 from its daily high. Crude oil hit a five-month high on the fifth day, rising nearly 5% in a week. Gold rose nearly 5% for the week, its biggest weekly gain in the past six months. Lun Copper is temporarily not at its highest level in the past two years, but it rose by more than 5% for the whole week, and Lun Zinc rose by more than 8% for the week.
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Tesla has canceled plans to launch low-priced electric cars and is instead focusing on developing self-driving robot taxis, sources said. After the news was released, Tesla's stock price fell by more than 6% during the session. Later, Musk insinuated that the media lied on social media
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After the non-farm payrolls report was released, the market was almost fully pricing in a rate cut in September.
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PPI fell more than expected, which is expected to be transmitted to CPI, accelerating the cooling of inflation in the euro area.
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Catalyzed by the depreciation of the yen, the Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 1.24%, leading the gains in the Asian market.
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Nvidia assessed that the earthquake would not interrupt chip supply, and TSMC also stated that its fab production capacity has been nearly fully restored in a short period of time, and key EUV equipment has not been affected.
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Dalio pointed out that the Chinese market is crucial for "understanding the world" and "diversifying investments." The key question is not whether one should invest in China, but how much.
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The Bank of America further supports Powell's view that it retains the possibility of cutting interest rates in June rather than predicting the data in advance, thereby avoiding the risk of unnecessary tightening of financial markets.
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