On Monday, a survey of consumer expectations from the New York Fed showed that U.S. consumers' expectations for inflation in the next year have stabilized, with medium-term inflation expectations rising and long-term inflation expectations falling. In addition, people are increasingly worried about their ability to repay debt. , expectations for the unemployment rate are also rising.

U.S. one-year inflation expectations held steady at 3% in March; three-year inflation expectations rose to 2.9% from 2.7% in February; five-year inflation expectations fell to 2.6% from 2.9% in February.

Although the above-mentioned survey showed that people's views on inflation remained relatively stable in March, respondents were still unsure about future price changes. Uncertainty among people aged 40 to 60 about the outlook for inflation three years from now rose in March to the highest level since survey data began to be collected in 2013.

Many Fed officials currently say that before starting to cut interest rates, they are seeking more confidence that inflation can go lower and that inflation can remain near the 2% target in the future. With U.S. inflation showing clear signs of rising since the beginning of the year, many senior Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed hawkish views. This latest survey data from the New York Fed has helped slightly ease officials' concerns.

In terms of specific categories, consumers expect gasoline prices to increase by 4.47% next year, food prices to increase by 5.08%, medical expenses to increase by 8.12%, college education expenses to increase by 6.54%, and housing rental prices to increase by 8.74%.

A higher share of consumers surveyed currently expect to have difficulty making debt payments. Specifically, the proportion of consumers who expect to be unable to repay the minimum level of debt in the next three months reached 12.90%, the highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic in April 2020, compared with 11.45% in February. This concern is concentrated among people in the 40-60 age group, whose debt burden exceeds that of younger generations of consumers, but whose income growth rate is slower than that of the latter generation.

The average expected probability of unemployment among those surveyed reached 15.7% in the next 12 months, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period.

The median expectation among respondents for household spending growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0%.