The blockbuster employment report released on Friday showed that the U.S. labor market is strong: non-farm employment increased by 303,000 in March, 89,000 more than Wall Street's median forecast, the largest monthly increase in nearly a year. Employment in January and February The total number of people was revised up by 22,000; the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 3.8% in March as expected; the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% in March, slightly higher than the expected 62.6%; the average hourly wage growth slowed down in March as expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% , a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, the lowest growth rate in nearly three years.
After the report was released, futures market trading showed that investors expected the probability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June or July to decrease, and it was more likely that there would be less than three interest rate cuts in total this year. Some commentators say that exceptionally strong job growth may be bad news for the bond market, because the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates earlier and more frequently decreases. The Federal Reserve may not start cutting interest rates until July, but it may be good news for the stock market. The data shows the economy shows no signs of slowing and consumer spending should remain strong in the near term.
Strong job growth has led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve may further delay an interest rate cut, with the expected probability of a rate cut in June falling to less than 55% during the session. After the report was released, U.S. Treasury bond prices fell and yields rose. The benchmark ten-year U.S. bond yield rose back to 4.40%, beginning to approach the four-month high hit on Wednesday; the U.S. dollar index jumped during the session; while major U.S. stock indexes rose open.
U.S. stocks and bonds will all have a "bad start" in the first week of the second quarter. This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated expectations for an interest rate cut this year, which briefly boosted the U.S. stock market. However, after Fed officials hinted that interest rates may not be cut this year, they plunged sharply on Thursday. Friday's rebound failed to reverse the accumulated losses of the major stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average It was the worst weekly decline since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank a year ago. Some market participants believe that after recording strong returns in the first quarter, the stock market may see some consolidation in the short term.
Economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index released this week have improved, suppressing market expectations for interest rate cuts, and U.S. bond yields have risen cumulatively. Friday's rebound failed to reverse this week's losses for the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar hit a new high in more than four months in the first two days of this week, and then fell back. It fell to a two-week low after Thursday's unemployment data increased more than expected. However, some analysts believe that the market is already pricing in an interest rate cut after September. This should continue to support overall dollar strength.
Commodities became the big winner in the first week of the second quarter. Sino-US economic data such as manufacturing PMI are improving, and industrial metals have risen by at least more than 3% across the board. After the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, gold turned lower in the short term. Later, as the dollar's gains diminished, the gains in spot and futures gold expanded to nearly 2%, once again hitting record highs in the session. Analysts from the World Gold Council pointed out that gold options market activity is extremely active compared to the stock and bond markets, which means that investor interest is currently mainly concentrated in gold. Some analysts believe that the Fed's start to cut interest rates will stimulate demand from investors who are waiting on the sidelines, and gold prices will test new highs.
Partly due to increased geopolitical risks, gold had its best weekly performance this week since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalated in October last year. International crude oil also continued to hit a new high in more than five months, driven by the geopolitical situation. The risk of a direct conflict between the two countries increased this week after Israel airstrike the embassy of Iran, OPEC's third-largest oil producer, in Syria. According to CCTV, Israel temporarily closed 28 embassies abroad on Friday. In addition, the media quoted a NATO official as saying on Thursday that Ukrainian drones' continued attacks on Russian oil refining facilities may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian production capacity and hit fuel output.
The S&P Nasdaq rose more than 1% but still fell for the whole week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2% for the week. Among the "Seven Sisters" of technology, only Tesla fell. The chip stock index rebounded.
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher and maintained their gains for the second consecutive day. When it hit a daily high in midday, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which had already risen more than 1% in early trading, rose more than 1.7%, the S&P 500 Index rose nearly 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 440 points or more than 1.1%. The gains narrowed, and stocks closed up collectively for the first time this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 307.06 points, or 0.8%, at 38904.04 points, bidding farewell to its four consecutive days of losses and its lowest closing price since March 5. The S&P and Nasdaq rebounded after falling back to their lowest closing levels since March 15 on Thursday. The S&P closed up 1.11%, rising more than 1% for the first time since March 12, to 5204.34 points. The Nasdaq closed up 1.24%, its largest closing gain since March 12, at 16,248.52 points.
The Russell 2000, a small-cap stock index dominated by value stocks, turned positive in early trading after opening lower and closed up 0.47%. It rebounded after falling back to its lowest closing level since March 19. The Nasdaq 100 Index, which focuses on technology stocks, closed up 1.28%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology industry components in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed up 1.55%. It has fallen this week. 0.18%, and the Nasdaq 100 both rebounded after falling back to their lowest closing levels since March 15 on Thursday.
As stocks generally fell more than 1% on Thursday, all major U.S. stock indexes fell this week. The Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 all fell after rising for two weeks in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.27%, its largest weekly decline since the week of March 10, 2023, the week when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. The S&P fell 0.95%, its fifth week of losses in the first 14 weeks of the year. Russell 2000 fell 2.87%. The Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 both fell by 0.8%, falling for two consecutive weeks, marking the sixth week of decline in the new year.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook parent company Meta, and Tesla, among the "Seven Sisters" of technology giants, only Tesla has never risen during the day.
Tesla, which opened lower, fell more than 2% in early trading. After the media said that Tesla canceled its plan to launch cheap cars, the stock price fell rapidly. It fell 6.2% in early trading. Later, the decline quickly narrowed to less than 3%, closing down 3.6%. %, after closing up more than 1% for two consecutive days, it fell back to its lowest level since March 15. After the first quarter delivery volume was reported on Tuesday to be far lower than expected, it closed down nearly 5%, the largest decline since March 4. This week has It fell about 6.2%, halting two consecutive weeks of gains.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, except Alphabet, all opened higher. Meta closed up 3.1%, rising for five consecutive days, setting a record closing high; Amazon closed up 2.8%, rebounding to its highest closing level since July 2021; it fell for three consecutive days on Thursday. Microsoft, which hit its lowest closing level since March 18, closed up 1.8%; Apple, which fell back to its lowest level since October 27, 2023 on Thursday, closed up nearly 0.5%; Alphabet, which fell back to a one-week low on Thursday, turned positive in early trading and closed up. 1.3%; Netflix closed up nearly 3.1%, setting a new high since November 2021 set on Wednesday.
Among the six technology stocks, only Apple fell this week, down about 1.1%. Meta led the way with a cumulative gain of 8.6%, Netflix rose nearly 4.8%, Yamen Model rose 2.6%, and Microsoft and Alphabet rose about 1.1%.
Chip stocks rebounded overall. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX turned lower in the early trading, and then maintained their gains. They closed up 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, breaking away from the closing low since March 19, which fell about 3% on Thursday. , fell 1.7% and 1.9% respectively this week. Among chip stocks, Nvidia, which has fallen for three consecutive days and closed at its lowest since March 11, rose 3% in midday trading and closed up nearly 2.5%. It still fell 2.6% this week; it fell more than 8% on Thursday, the largest loss in 11 months. AMD, which declined, had risen by more than 4% in midday trading and closed up by nearly 2.8%. It fell by nearly 5.6% this week. At the close, U.S. stocks of Broadcom and TSMC rose by more than 1%, while Intel fell by more than 2% and Micron Technology fell by 0.4%.
AI concept stocks were mixed. At the close, Palantir (PLTR) and Astera Labs (ALAB), known as "Little Nvidia" and selling data center interconnect chips, both rose more than 2%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose 1%, and Oracle (ORCL) rose 0.6 %, C3.ai (AI) rose nearly 0.6%; while Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 1%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell nearly 2%, and Adobe (ADBE) fell 0.4%.
Popular Chinese concept stocks generally continued to fall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which opened lower, fell more than 0.5% at the beginning of the session, then narrowed its losses and closed down nearly 0.2%. It fell for three consecutive days after rising for four consecutive days and reaching its highest closing level since March 20. , it still rose nearly 0.4% this week, rebounding after falling for two consecutive weeks, and rising for the fifth week in eight weeks since entering the Year of the Dragon. China Concept ETF KWEB fell nearly 0.5% in early trading and then erased losses in early trading, while CQQQ fell less than 1% in early trading. The three new car-making forces did not all rise. At the close, Li Auto rose nearly 0.7%, while NIO fell more than 2%, and Xpeng Motors fell 0.4%. In addition, Xiaomi Fans, which released its first car SU7 last week, had strong orders in early trading. It fell about 2% and closed down 0.8%. Among other stocks, at the close of trading, Baidu and Bilibili fell nearly 2%, Alibaba and JD.com fell about 0.4%, while NetEase rose nearly 0.8%, Pinduoduo rose 0.3%, and Tencent Pink Order rose slightly.
Among the more volatile stocks, cable TV company Altice USA (ATUS) fell more than 10% during the session and closed down nearly 5.1% after Wells Fargo downgraded its rating to underweight and suspected that its mergers and acquisitions would progress; Citigroup declined due to corporate liquidity Photovoltaic stock Enphase Energy (ENPH) closed down nearly 7.1% after downgrading its rating from buy to neutral due to limited availability and believing that the trend of the U.S. market was weaker than the previous quarter; while Piper Sandler raised its rating to overweight and bullish Donut chain Krispy Kreme (DNUT) closed up 7.3% after it announced the prospect of a partnership with McDonald's last week.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index, which had rebounded for two consecutive days, fell back due to multiple blows, including unexpected hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and US economic data that suppressed interest rate cut expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index hit its lowest closing level since March 20. The stock indexes of major European countries all fell. The stocks of Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the four major economies in the euro zone, all fell by more than 1%. Stocks of Germany, Britain, France and Spain fell back, and Italian stocks fell for two days in a row. Among various sectors, utilities fell more than 2%, leading the decline, followed by retail sales, which fell about 2%. The oil and gas sector, which was supported by higher crude oil, ended slightly higher.
The Stoxx 600 index fell by more than 1% this week, its largest weekly decline since the week of January 19, ending its ten-week winning streak. Stock indexes across various countries fell collectively, with Italian stocks leading the decline falling by more than 2%. Italian stocks, German stocks, Spanish stocks and British stocks ended nine, eight, four and three weeks of consecutive gains respectively. French stocks, which rebounded last week, also fell back.
Among various sectors, retail sales, which led the gains last week by more than 5%, fell by nearly 4% due to Friday's drop. Utilities were also dragged down by Friday's drop and fell by more than 2% this week. Interest rate-sensitive real estate fell by more than 2% this week. 3.5%, while oil and gas rose by about 3.7%. The basic resources sector, which fell more than 1% on Friday, still rose 2.8% for the whole week, highlighting the strength of commodities such as crude oil and industrial metals.
Crude oil hit a five-month high on the fifth day, rising nearly 5% in a week
International crude oil futures turned lower several times before and during the European stock market. U.S. stocks also turned lower in early trading, but the declines were relatively small. When it hit a daily low, U.S. WTI crude oil was close to $86.30, down 0.3% on the day. Brent crude oil fell below $90.60, down less than 0.1% on the day. U.S. stocks turned higher in early trading and maintained their gains. When they hit a daily high at midday, U.S. oil prices It rose above US$87.60, up 1.2% on the day, and Brent oil rose above US$91.90, up nearly 1.4% on the day.
In the end, crude oil closed higher for six consecutive trading days, hitting a five-month high for five consecutive days. WTI May crude oil futures closed up $0.32, or 0.37%, at $86.91/barrel; Brent June crude oil futures closed up $0.52, or 0.57%, at $91.17/barrel, both hitting record highs in October 2023 in consecutive days. After setting a new high since the 27th, it has refreshed the closing high of the spot-month contract for two consecutive days since October 20 of the same year.
U.S. oil rose by about 4.5% this week, and Brent oil rose by about 4.8%. It has risen for two consecutive weeks. It has risen for the seventh week in the past 12 weeks. It is also the 12th week of cumulative gains in the 26 weeks since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. After a quarter-to-quarter surge of more than 10%, the first week of the second quarter got off to a good start.
U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures continued to trade mixed gains and losses. NYMEX May gasoline futures, which have risen for three days in a row, closed down 0.2% at $2.7886/gallon, leaving behind the high since August 2023 set on Thursday. This week, it has risen by about 2.5%, rising for two consecutive weeks; two consecutive weeks. The falling NYMEX May natural gas futures closed up 0.62% at $1.785 per million British thermal units. They did not continue to fall from the high since March 6 set on Tuesday. They rose by about 0.6% this week and rebounded after falling last week. .
Lun Copper temporarily stayed away from its highest level in the past two years, rising more than 5% for the whole week. After the employment report, gold turned negative in the short term and then hit a record high.
Base metals futures in London were mixed on Friday. Lun aluminum and Lun nickel have risen for five consecutive days, with Lun aluminum hitting a new high since late February last year for three consecutive days; Lun nickel hitting a new high in nearly three weeks. Lunxi rose for four consecutive days, hitting a new high in more than eight months since July last year. Lun Copper and Lun Zinc, which had risen for four consecutive days, fell away from their closing highs in nearly two years and since the end of last year respectively. London lead, which had risen for two consecutive days to a three-week high, also fell.
These metals have all risen this week, with Lun zinc rising by 8.2% and Lunxi rising by nearly 5%, both of which have rebounded strongly after falling for two consecutive weeks. Lunni, which fell back last week, rose by more than 6%. London Copper, which was roughly flat last week, rose 5.2%, rising for the first time in the past three weeks. Lun aluminum rose nearly 5%, rising for four consecutive weeks, and Lun lead rose more than 3%, rising for two consecutive weeks.
New York gold futures hit a daily low of $2,286.20 after turning lower in early trading in Asia, falling nearly 1% on the day. European stocks basically maintained their gains after turning higher before the market opened. They only turned lower in the short term after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Spot gold also turned lower in the short term soon after the report.
Gold's gains continued to expand after the U.S. stock market opened. Futures gold rose to $2,350 at midday, and spot gold rose to above $2,330. Both hit record intraday highs for six consecutive trading days, rising by about 1.8% and about 1.7% respectively during the day. Finally, gold futures and spot gold, which closed lower on Thursday, set a record closing high, setting a record high for the seventh day in the last eight trading days.
COMEX June gold futures closed up 1.6% at US$2,345.4 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 4.78% this week, refreshing the largest weekly increase set in the week of March 8 since the week of October 13, 2023, rising for two consecutive weeks, Brazil It rose for the 18th week in 26 weeks since the conflict broke out. Spot gold was above $2,320 when U.S. stocks closed, rising about 1.4% during the day and rising for three consecutive weeks.
New York silver futures rose for seven consecutive trading days. COMEX May silver futures closed up 0.94% at $27.503 per ounce, setting a new closing high for three consecutive days since June 2021. It has risen by about 10.4% this week and has risen for two consecutive weeks. .