On Tuesday, March 19, the two-day Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting opened. The market is betting that interest rate policy will remain unchanged. Due to the unexpected recovery in inflation, interest rate swap pricing shows that traders are betting less than 50% on an interest rate cut in June. %.

Some analysts say that the "dot plot" of the interest rate path and the quarterly economic outlook will help shape the prospects for interest rate cuts this year. Whether the balance sheet reduction policy will be adjusted may also give a signal. Therefore, this meeting is crucial. Some people think that the Fed's tone Or slightly hawkish.

Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Bank of America Global Research, believes that if the dot plot indicates only two interest rate cuts this year, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield may fall by 10 basis points, the dollar will rise, and risk assets will come under pressure; if interest rates are still cut, The three times unchanged, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise by 5 basis points, the dollar will weaken, and the rise in risk assets will continue.

U.S. housing starts rose more than expected in February to 1.521 million units, the highest since August last year, a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Forward-looking indicator construction permits also increased more than expected. The January data were all revised upwards, indicating that the housing market is recovering due to the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts during the year. .

The Bank of Japan achieved a historical turn, ending negative interest rates and yield curve control policies, raising interest rates for the first time in seventeen years, and canceling most of its asset purchase quantitative easing plans, causing the yen to plummet below the 150 mark against the U.S. dollar, which was the level last year. Let Japan intervene in the currency market.

The S&P Nasdaq rebounded in the afternoon. The S&P closed at a new high. The Dow rose the most in three weeks. Nvidia fell nearly 4% and then rose 1%.

On Tuesday, the NVIDIA GTC developer conference, known as the AI feast, continued. As NVIDIA opened down about 3%, dragging down the performance of technology and chip stocks, only the Dow, which is dominated by traditional industries, opened higher. The S&P and Nasdaq both fell. , the Nasdaq fell deeper.

However, before midday, the S&P 500 index turned higher before the Nasdaq. Nvidia also turned up 1% after falling nearly 4%, which led to the expansion of the US stock index and closed at a daily high. The Nasdaq completely erased the 0.9% decline and returned to 1.6 Above 10,000 points, the Dow rose 320 points and exceeded 39,000 points.

As of the close, U.S. stock indexes have risen for two consecutive days. The S&P hit a record closing high, the Dow hit its highest in more than three weeks since February 23 and the largest gain since February 22. The Nasdaq 100 turned positive and then rose above 18,000. points, and the Nasdaq hit its highest level since March 13:

The S&P 500 index closed up 29.09 points, or 0.56%, at 5178.51 points. The Dow closed up 320.3 points, or 0.83%, at 39110.76 points. The Nasdaq closed up 63.34 points, or 0.39%, at 16166.79 points.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology industry stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed up 0.25%, fully recovering its losses since last Thursday.

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks turned 0.5% higher, off its lowest level since February 23. The "fear index" VIX fell by more than 3% and fell below 14.

Star technology stocks gained momentum in the afternoon. "Yuanverse" Meta fell more than 3% and then closed down 0.2%, Tesla fell 3.7% and then closed down 1.4%, Google A fell 0.4% and missed a five-week high; Apple rose 1.4% to its highest level since March 1; Amazon rose 0.8%, Microsoft rose about 0.1%; Netflix fell 1.7% and then rose 0.4%, reaching its highest level since the end of 2021.

Chip stocks also narrowed their losses after midday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.9% after falling 2.9%, falling for five consecutive days to its lowest level in two weeks since February 28. Nvidia fell 3.9% and closed up 1.1%. Nvidia Double Long ETF fell 8% and closed up about 2%. Intel fell about 3% and then halved its decline. AMD fell about 7% and then closed down nearly 5%. Qualcomm fell. 1.7%, TSMC U.S. stocks fell 2.6% before closing down 1.3%.

AI concept stocks broke away from the general decline at the beginning of the session. Adobe rose 1.4% and continued to break away from eight-month lows, while Oracle rose 1%, hitting its highest closing price for two consecutive days. Advanced Micro Computer, which just added 2 million shares or US$2 billion to the S&P 500 this week, fell 13.8% and then closed down about 9%, falling for four consecutive days to a two-week low. Palantir fell more than 4% and then closed down 0.8%. C3.ai fell more than 4% and then closed down 2.6%. SoundHound.ai fell 7.8% and then rose 1%, approaching its two-year high again. BigBear.ai closed after falling 9%. down 0.5%.

In the news, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that software will be a very huge business. It is estimated that the market opportunity of data centers will be 250 billion US dollars a year, and NVIDIA will gain a larger market share. Combined with his emphasis on the ecosystem after joining the software. causing the stock price to rise.

Some analysts said that Nvidia did not provide additional "surprises" after launching the new generation of the most powerful AI chip Blackwell GB200, causing investors to take profits. However, Wall Street is still optimistic about the stock, and Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Nvidia to $1,000.

China Concept Stock Index's losses narrowed in late trading. ETF KWEB closed down 0.3% after falling 1.4%, CQQQ closed down 0.7% after falling 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 0.6% after falling 1.7%, setting a new weekly low for four consecutive days.

Among popular stocks, JD.com fell 0.9%, Baidu fell 0.6%, and Pinduoduo fell 0.8%; Alibaba fell 0.9% and then closed down 0.1%, Tencent ADR fell 0.8%, Bilibili nearly erased the 2.5% decline, and Weilai fell 6.3%, Li Auto fell 0.9%; Xpeng Motors, whose net loss narrowed in the fourth quarter, rose 7% and then closed up 0.7%, Ehang Intelligent rose more than 15%, and Tencent Music, whose number of paying users increased by more than 20% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, rose Over 6%.

Among bank stocks, the industry benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index (BKX) rose 0.2%, rebounding from the month's low for three days, and the KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) narrowed its gain to 0.4%, but New York Community Bank (NYCB) fell more than 3% to a one-week low.

Other stocks with big changes include:

In terms of medical AI, Novo Nordisk and Nvidia jointly built a super AI computer, but its European stocks fell by more than 1.8% and U.S. stocks fell by more than 1%.

Cryptocurrencies fell across the board, causing digital currency exchanges and miner stocks to collectively fall sharply. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, once fell by 18%, Coinbase once fell by nearly 10%, and Riot Platforms once fell by more than 8%.

U.S. luxury department store Nordstrom closed up more than 9% after rising 14%. The founding family has asked investment banks such as Morgan Stanley to contact private equity to explore the possibility of privatization again after 2018.

British consumer goods giant Unilever's European stocks rose 6% and U.S. stocks rose nearly 3%. The restructuring plan will split the ice cream department and lay off 7,500 people.

European stocks generally rose, with Italian and Spanish stock indexes rising nearly 1% to lead national indexes. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.26%, off a one-week low after falling for three consecutive days from record highs, while auto stocks rose another about 1%. The German, French and Spanish stock indexes returned to record closing highs, and the Bank of Italy index rose by more than 1.8%.

U.S. bond yields fell by about 5 basis points, with the 10-year bond yield breaking off a four-month high.

On the eve of the release of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. bond yields fell collectively. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell as much as about 5 basis points and fell to 4.70%, off a three-week high. The 10-year bond yield fell as much as 6 basis points to 4.28%. Yesterday, it hit 4.35%, the highest since the end of November last year.

The euro zone's benchmark 10-year Bund yield fell 1 basis point, and the two-year yield fell more than 3 basis points. Yields on 10-year and two-year British bonds both fell by about 3 basis points. Italian and Greek bond yields, which are heavily indebted to peripheral countries, rose.

Because Japanese investors are large holders of euro zone government bonds, some analysts worry that ending Japan's negative interest rate policy could cause funds to flow back home, raising Europe's borrowing costs. However, the trend logic of European bond yields is still controlled by the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions. Today, a voting committee reiterated the expectation of starting to cut interest rates in June, ultimately driving down yields.

Oil prices have remained at five-month highs for two consecutive days, with Brent oil closing above $87 and U.S. oil rising nearly 1%.

Positive demand signals, the extension of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement into the second quarter, and expectations that European and American central banks will cut interest rates to boost demand continue to support oil prices. UBS said that Ukraine's attack on Russian energy infrastructure may reduce Russian crude oil production by as much as 300,000 barrels per day.

WTI April crude oil futures closed up US$0.75, or 0.90%, at US$83.47/barrel, and Brent May futures closed up US$0.49, or 0.6%, at US$87.38/barrel, both hitting a record high since late October last year. The highest in five months.

The more actively traded May futures of U.S. oil WTI rose by nearly $1 or 1.2%, once reaching $83, setting a new high in more than four months since early November last year. International Brent rose as much as 0.9%, closing above $87 for the first time since the end of October last year.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose 0.3%, rising above 29 euros/MWh. It had opened higher and then turned lower. ICE British natural gas rose about 0.9%. U.S. natural gas futures rose nearly 4% and then cut their gains in half. In the next two days, Colder weather will push up heating demand this week.

The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high, the Japanese yen fell to 151 and hit a four-month low, and Bitcoin once fell below $63,000.

The U.S. dollar index DXY, which measures a basket of six major currencies, rose as much as 0.6% and once rose above the 104 mark, hitting its highest level in two weeks since March 1. It has risen by about 2% this year, and the U.S. economy has performed better than expected, making investors no longer bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly and significantly.

Both the euro and the pound continued to hit their lowest levels against the dollar since March 6. The yen fell more than 1% against the US dollar and once fell to 151, hitting a four-month low since November last year. The offshore yuan fell slightly and fell below 7.21 yuan against the US dollar, continuing to hover at a week-and-a-half low.

Some analysts said that the Bank of Japan's historic exit from ultra-loose monetary policy but the yen's decline was because the decision was in line with market expectations and did not release a signal to continue raising interest rates. The wide interest rate differential between Japan and the United States will continue to weigh on the yen. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to a two-week low against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged and downplayed the possibility of further rate hikes.

Major cryptocurrencies fell. Bitcoin, the largest leader in market capitalization, once fell 7% and fell to $63,000. U.S. stocks nearly halved their intraday losses and regained $64,000, still hitting a two-week low. Ethereum, the second largest, once fell nearly 10% to $3,200.

At the low of the day, Bitcoin fell by more than $10,000 from last week's all-time high. However, the Japanese Government Pension Fund, as the world's largest pension fund, is obtaining basic information on "illiquid assets" such as Bitcoin, and does not rule out including them in the investment portfolio in the future.

Spot gold is close to its lowest level in more than a week, Lunxi fell 4.4% and fell to its highest level in seven months, and Lunxi copper and zinc fell more than 1%.

As the market awaits clues on the path of inflation and interest rates provided by Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, COMEX April gold futures closed down 0.21% at $2,159.70 per ounce. COMEX May silver futures closed down 0.51% at $25.135 per ounce.

A higher U.S. dollar also weighed on gold prices. Spot gold fell below $2,160, falling as much as 0.6% and approaching a new low in more than a week set on Monday. On March 8, gold hit a record high of nearly $2,195.

London industrial base metals generally fell, with only London lead rising slightly. Economic weather vane "Dr. Copper" closed down $112, or more than 1.2%, and fell below the $9,000 mark. Yesterday, it rose above $9,160, hitting an 11-month high. Lun zinc fell by more than 1% for two consecutive days, Lun nickel fell by nearly 480 US dollars or 2.7%, and Lunxi fell by more than 1,200 US dollars or 4.4%. It fell for the first time in five days and fell to the highest level in seven months.