Tianfeng International's well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote that demand for Apple's Vision Pro in the US market has significantly slowed, with delivery times now improved to 3-5 days. He currently estimates that new models with significant changes in Vision Pro specifications might not enter mass production until 2027.

Based on delivery times, Kuo noted that demand in the US market has significantly slowed. The delivery time for Vision Pro has now improved to 3-5 days, meaning arrivals at the beginning of March. The delivery time was set for early March right after pre-orders opened on January 19, indicating that while Vision Pro sold out immediately due to early adopters, demand quickly declined and has not improved since.

Regarding the issue of Vision Pro return rates, Kuo claims that, according to his investigation of the repair/refurbishment production line, the current return rate for Vision Pro is below 1%, which is not unusual. Among those who returned the product, about 20-30% did so because they did not know how to set up Vision Pro.

Kuo believes that unless Vision Pro sees a price reduction or more attractive applications, its shipment growth in the US market will be limited. He estimates this year's US market shipment volume at about 200-250k units, better than Apple's original estimate of 150-200k units, but this scale is still niche.

Regarding the global launch schedule, Kuo still maintains his forecast that Apple might sell Vision Pro in more countries before this year's WWDC. Given the limited growth potential in the US market and improved supply, this favors an earlier global launch schedule, but the actual launch time depends on Apple's timeline for modifying software to comply with regulations in other countries.

On supply chain expansion, Kuo noted that several smaller suppliers have expanded production in the past month, from 500-600k units this year to 700-800k units. Even so, this scale remains niche. Besides the demand from early adopters in the US market being better than expected, another main reason Apple asked suppliers to expand production was to reduce delivery times after the global launch. However, capacity often does not entirely equal shipments. For example, the current annual assembly capacity for the iPhone reaches 250-300 million units, but actual shipments are significantly lower.

Regarding the market speculation on new models, Kuo commented:

The market generally expects Apple to launch lower-spec models (e.g., reducing the number of cameras, removing Eyesight, etc.) and new models with upgraded specifications. However, my latest investigation shows that Apple has not officially initiated either of these two projects.

The new Vision Pro project that Apple has officially initiated is expected to enter mass production in 4Q25-1Q26, with Foxconn securing the new product development (NPI; new product introduction). This new project focuses on improving supply chain production and management efficiency rather than specification changes. This new project may reduce costs, and given the latest plans, specification changes are limited, so the current speculation is that user experience may not differ from the current model.

Apple is collecting user feedback to plan the Vision Pro product roadmap. It is currently estimated that new models with significant changes in Vision Pro specifications may not enter mass production until 2027.

A summary of the current situation with Vision Pro:

Everything about Vision Pro from pre-order to now has met previous expectations, with the only exceedance being the number of early adopters and supplier expansion. Even so, based on the current demand (2024 shipment estimate increased to 600-700k units vs. previous 500k units) and production scale, Vision Pro remains a niche product.

For Apple and the majority of its suppliers, the investment theme of Vision Pro still has a very limited impact on stock prices.

The three keys for Vision Pro to transition from a niche to a mainstream product are applications, price, and wearing comfort. Improvements/changes in these three keys will be the focus of future observations.