Although the U.S. CPI in February slightly exceeded expectations year-on-year, expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have changed little after a brief market shock.

Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, higher than expected and the previous value of 3.1%; the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, but 0.3% higher than the previous value.

After the data was released, U.S. debt trends fluctuated, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling by more than 1 basis point after a short-term rise of four basis points. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, with mixed gains and losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15% in early trading, the Nasdaq rose 0.03%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.08%.

Chip stocks maintained their gains, with Nvidia rising by about 2% and TSMC rising by more than 2%. Oracle, whose profit last quarter exceeded Wall Street expectations, soared more than 13% at the opening. Boeing fell more than 3% and was the worst-performing component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose by more than 3%, and star stocks generally rose. BOSS surged 9% after its direct recruitment results, Beike, which is about to announce its results, rose more than 6%, and JD.com rose more than 4%.

The U.S. dollar index fell about 20 points in the short term, reaching a low of 102.77. It then rose 30 points and is now at 103.07.

Spot gold rose by about $10 in the short term after the CPI data was released, and then fell sharply, further away from the historical high hit last Friday. It is now trading at $2,165 per ounce, down about 0.8% on the day.

Futures market data shows that the market expects an 87 basis point interest rate cut by December, which is basically unchanged during the day. It still fully digests three interest rate cuts during the year and retains the possibility of a fourth rate cut; while the Fed's dot plot currently predicts three rate cuts.

Skylar Weinand, CIO of Regan Capital, commented:

While markets were expected to cool off a bit after the data was released, it's proving difficult to see what will stop the market's upward momentum as earnings, inflation and interest rates are all moving in the right direction.

In terms of European stocks, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index extended its gains to a record high, rising 0.6% on the day. Britain's FTSE led the major European stock indexes higher, rising as much as 1.11%.

The following is updated at 17:00 Beijing time:

On Tuesday, March 12, on the eve of the announcement of the U.S. heavyweight CPI inflation, U.S. stock index futures generally rose before the market opened, with the Dow futures rising 0.12%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.58%. The surge in Hong Kong stocks led to gains across Asia except Japan. The latest rumors showed that the Bank of Japan still has differences on ending its negative interest rate policy. Japanese stocks have narrowed their losses and have fallen for four consecutive days. The gains in gold and Bitcoin have been hindered, and they are still close to the record highs set not long ago.

Economists currently expect that the U.S. CPI will increase by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively. The core CPI is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.7%, hitting the lowest level since April 2021.

CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market believes that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at the FOMC next week, but the probability of cutting interest rates at the June meeting is more than 70%. Traders forecast 90 basis points of rate cuts throughout the year.

Mag 7 stocks rose before the market opened, Nvidia and TSMC rebounded

All seven sisters of technology stocks rose before the market opened. Nvidia, which had fallen for two consecutive days, rose nearly 2% before the market opened, and Tesla rose more than 1%.

Among other star technology stocks, TSMC rebounded by more than 2% before the market opened, and Oracle rose by nearly 14%. The company's cloud revenue increased by 24% in the third fiscal quarter, and the company said in an analyst conference call that it will soon announce an "excited announcement" with Nvidia. Joint Declaration of the People’s Hearts.”

Zhonggai's gains continued, with Miniso rising 14% before the market opened. The company's core financial indicators set new records last quarter. Bilibili rose more than 5%, JD.com rose more than 4%, and Xpeng Motors rose nearly 5%.

Asian markets generally rise; Japanese stocks close down again and fall for four consecutive days

In global stock markets, European stocks generally rose at the beginning of the session, and Asian stock markets generally rose on Tuesday, driven by a sharp rebound in Chinese technology stocks. However, the Bank of Japan's shift to expectations caused Japanese stocks to fall slightly, and the Nikkei Index has closed negative for four consecutive trading days.

The focus in Asia is on the actions of the Bank of Japan. Yesterday, Japanese stocks fell sharply as the Bank of Japan did not purchase ETFs as usual, sparking market speculation that the Bank of Japan would end its ultra-loose monetary policy. According to people familiar with the matter, Bank of Japan officials are positive about ending the negative interest rate policy this month.

Futures market data shows traders believe there is a 47% chance that the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy at its March 18-19 meeting.

However, the latest rumors indicate that officials still disagree on the specific point of ending the negative interest rate policy. Japanese stocks rebounded after falling more than 1% during the session, and the Nikkei finally closed down 0.06%, falling for four consecutive days.

Affected by the sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks, other major Asian indexes generally rose. India's BSESN index rose 0.39%, South Korea's KOSPI index rose 0.83%, and the Taiwan stock market rose 0.87%.

Stock indexes across Europe rose broadly, with "Ocean's Eleven" mixed gains and losses

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.37%. Among various stock indexes, as the latest employment data was lower than expected, the pound fell, and interest rate cuts were expected to be positive. Britain's FTSE index rose 0.87%, leading European stocks. Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.26%, and France's CAC 40 index rose 0.06%.

European stocks "Ocean's Eleven" were mixed, with German software giant SAP rising more than 1%.

Gold prices hold steady below record highs, Bitcoin, Ethereum both fall

Spot gold and silver fell by about 0.3% each within 24 hours. Spot gold fell slightly to $2,177.14, still not far from the record high of $2,194.99 hit last Friday.

Cryptocurrency assets have received multiple benefits: the London Stock Exchange confirmed that it will accept exchange-traded bond (ETN) listing applications for the world's two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the Thailand Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will allow domestic retail investors to purchase overseas cryptocurrency ETFs; Several technical indicators show increasing interest in Bitcoin from both institutional and retail investors.

After Bitcoin rose above US$72,000 and hit a new all-time high yesterday, it failed to stabilize and is currently trading at US$71,744.

Ethereum failed to stand firm at the $4,000 mark and is now trading at $3,988, down nearly 2% on the day.

U.S. dollar index stabilizes, Japanese yen exchange rate falls slightly

The yen fell 0.41% against the U.S. dollar, with the latest rumors saying that there are still differences within the Bank of Japan on the point at which to end its negative interest rate policy, and the market awaits the results of Friday's annual labor negotiations. USD/JPY rebounded slightly to 147.5 yen per dollar.

Sterling fell on weaker than expected employment. February employment data showed that the British unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, and average weekly earnings increased by 5.6% year-on-year. Following a downward revision to January's data, 20,000 new jobs were added in February.

EUR/GBP rebounded to 0.8550 after the data was released. Futures markets showed traders expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, compared with expectations a day earlier of 70 basis points.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rebounded slightly to 102.89 after hitting a roughly two-month low of 102.33 last week.