Net immigration to the U.S. surged to approximately 2.5 million last year, significantly boosting labor force and GDP growth while helping to alleviate wage pressures. For 2024, Goldman Sachs estimates net immigration will total around 2 million, which is double the pre-pandemic trend rate.

The outlook, however, hinges on several pre- and post-election policy decisions. President Biden's recent changes, announced on June 4, aim to restrict a channel that could potentially account for 700,000 immigrants annually at current unauthorized migration rates.

“However, we think the ultimate effect would be a fraction of this as most affected immigrants would likely attempt other modes of entry,” Goldman economists wrote. “Legal challenges to the new rules might even block implementation altogether.”

Should President Biden secure a second term, the administration is expected to maintain the current immigration policies with minimal changes. The new asylum restrictions, while intended to reduce net unauthorized immigration, face legal and logistical challenges “but could lower net unauthorized immigration and limit the potential for upside immigration surprises this year,” Goldman noted.

This policy would set a daily limit of 2,500 unauthorized migrants encountered outside official ports of entry, with any excess being expelled back across the border. Given the daily rate was reported at 3,500 in May, this limit is likely to be immediately met, meaning that US authorities “would expel apprehended migrants back across the border, rather than releasing many of them into the US to await a court date.”